Elite Desperation To Capture Power, Threat To 2023 Election—Experts

ABUJA—THE intense power struggle ahead of the 2023 general elections has the potential to accentuate the conflict trends, with Nigerian security agencies’ poor response to emergencies and distress calls posing a huge challenge.

This position was reached in a study conducted by development experts at Nextier, a leading policy think-tank.

They assert that with the elite desperation to capture power in the 2023 elections, there is widespread apprehension that violent cases, including assassinations, might escalate.

According to Nextier experts, “There is the probability that the intense power struggle ahead of the 2023 elections might accentuate the conflict trends. One of the challenges of Nigerian security agencies has been a poor response to emergencies and distress calls.

“To address this challenge and ensure prompt security of lives and investments, there is a need to embrace the EWER mechanisms of providing good government presence in vulnerable communities, building trust between communities and security agents, fostering closer collaboration with local actors, and promoting conflict sensitivity among local leaders.”

The group identified building trust between local communities and the security agents as a pathway to achieving lasting peace in Nigeria.

The experts further stated that, “Currently, there is minimal trust between most Nigerian citizens and the security agents, particularly the police. Many Nigerians, especially those living in rural communities, perceive state security agents as ‘predators’ rather than ‘protectors.

“This perception may not be unconnected with the ignoble culture of brutality, human rights violations, and extra-judicial killings that characterize Nigerian security establishments. To ensure effective collaboration and sharing of strategic information, there is a need for trust-building between the security agencies and Nigerian citizens. Reputable security firms can be contracted for the sensitization and trust-building project.”

The experts further contended that “members of state security agencies are too few, not strategically deployed, overstretched, ill-equipped and corrupt to effectively manage ubiquitous terrorism, banditry, secessionist agitations, ritual murders, cultism, kidnapping and other forms of violent insecurity.

“There is a need for a system that monitors at-risk locations and assesses the probability of violence eruption, escalation, continuation and geographic diffusion.”

They said that atrocious violence in Nigeria has surged exponentially, as manifested by the rising trends in massacres, arsons and kidnappings, adding that their data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database shows that between June 2020 and April 2022, at least, 8,455 persons were gruesomely murdered.

“A yearly breakdown shows that 1,494 were killed in the second half of 2020, 4,379 in 2021, and 2,582 from January to April 2022. Among the 2,582 persons killed between January and April 2022, 2,424 were civilians and 158 security officers.

abductions which rose from 2,002 from the rising trends of violence, extant mitigation strategies have not been effective.” “In another report, a significant indicator of atrocious mass violence is the upsurge in cases of in 2020 to 5,663 in 2021 as evident.